A series of minor tremors along a major California fault line over the past two months has fueled more than premonitions that "the big one" might soon come. Real-time assessments of the probability and potential location of a severe earthquake have been continuously relayed to state and local emergency managers via the National Information Infrastructure. In turn, these managers use their real-time logistics and management control system to determine the state of readiness in each community within the region.
These last minute preparations are just in time. Within seconds of the massive earthquake, real-time computer analysis of seismic monitoring data from a broad array of sensors placed across the region and nation pinpoint the location and magnitude of the quake. Before the initial jolt is over, an automated regional resources management system combines the new data with a large data base that describes in detail the geological structure of the area. A map appears showing the areas most likely affected, and the kind and degree of earth motion expected in each area.
This geographically referenced information is consistent with a standard geographic encoding of the area, which enables other emergency response systems to spring immediately into action.
Within the first 30 seconds of the onset of "the big one," this information is fed into still another interconnected computer system that contains a detailed data base of buildings, highways, and other structures in the affected area. The system shows the expected ability of these structures to hold up after the kind of earth motion just experienced and that to be expected as a result of aftershocks from a quake of this magnitude.
Another database predicts the expected distribution of people in those areas, taking into account the time of day, special events that are underway, and real-time data for hotel and theater occupancy rates, traffic distribution, and the location of hazardous materials in every building, truck, and train throughout the area.
Still within a minute of the initial jolt, a master database combines all this and other data, such as the prevailing and forecasted weather conditions, to create an instant picture of the likely nature and extent of this major emergency.
Alarms are quickly activated in emergency control centers, fire and police stations, hospitals and other medical care centers, and in the offices and homes of local, state, and federal emergency officials. By the end of this first minute, "informed" emergency bulletins immediately interrupt the routine in all schools, offices and homes in the area, providing a concise message of what has happened and what to do.
As a result, emergency resource teams are deployed within a few minutes of the quake, knowing where they are most needed and what types of injuries to expect. Hazardous materials response teams are dispatched to the needed sites, armed with current information about the location and nature of the hazardous materials and the latest weather data. Appropriate warnings are issued, allowing the general public to take immediate action to protect their safety.
In the hours following the quake, this information is updated continuously and is relayed to emergency support teams, hospitals, government officials, and private sector managers. Wireless interfaces and satellite links ensure the rapid transmission of critical information to teams working in areas where phone and electrical lines are disrupted. Community centers and others register millions of local residents for quick location by loved ones and a first step in emergency assistance programs.
The result? Thousands of lives saved through fast, appropriate emergency response, and billions of dollars of property protected from unnecessary danger, such as hazardous materials or other threats.