Michele, a biological oceanographer and fishing industry analyst, sits at her workstation at the Western Regional Environmental Center analyzing predictions for a record pollock catch off Kodiak Island. The source? Observations from an on-going cruise in Alaskas Shelikof Strait that suggest the recent El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event is influencing the fish harvest in the area.
The analyst, whose job it is to guide the U.S. fishing fleet, has her doubts, however. She is accessing data from satellite-linked moored subsurface ocean sensors, polar-orbiting satellites, numerical forecasting models, and coastal sampling stations from the past three months. All these data indicate that warm tropical water has been progressively moving northward along the U.S. and Canadian Pacific coast. Real-time data from satellite-linked drifting buoys and current meter arrays, as well as ship surveys of fish egg and larvae, suggest a major circulation anomaly is occurring in the spawning region off the coast. In fact, what looked like a high catch year seems to be turning into an economic bust!
Observations from an on-going cruise in the area, as well as the beginning of disturbing reports from fishing boats also hint that something may be wrong.
Using a mouse, Michele clicks a satellite icon that downloads the most recent 24-hour set of visible and infrared imagery from NOAA and NASA ocean-observing satellites. After clicking another icon, a new window opens that allows her to extract and compile a time series of the last 30 days of infrared imagery from the NASA satellite database in Pasadena, CA, and the NOAA satellite database in Suitland, MD. Using tools available on the NII, she is able to quickly integrate these disparate data sets spread across the country and to create an animation that clearly shows the progression of warm tropical waters toward the Alaskan coastal region that serves as a safe nursery for pollock larvae.
In order to put this environmental event into perspective, Michele next queries the National Oceanographic Data Center ship observations data base in Washington, DC, for the past 50 years of sea surface temperature data. Using a graphical user interface available on the NII that lets scientists intuitively explore and visualize a variety of multi-dimensional data products, she zooms in on the North Pacific and quickly creates a 50-year animation loop of sea surface temperature. In another window of her workstation, she accesses the ENSO and Equatorial Undercurrent oceanographic database at the University of Washington. Next she creates a new graphical overlay of her data that suggests a long-term, phased relationship between equatorial processes and sea surface temperature in the northern Pacific. This visual observation is confirmed by running correlation and coherence analyses using a point-and-click time series package, available on the NII from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, CA.
Based on these data, she is able to project nearby regions where the fish are likely to go. With another icon selection, she overlays several tracks of drifting buoy data and subsurface moored current meter data onto the satellite imagery. These data suggest that the planned track of an observation cruise underway will have to be modified to properly sample the new circulation feature and the whereabouts of the fish. To plan for the new cruise track, she checks the online National Weather Service's five-day weather forecast and the Navy's Pacific Ocean Circulation Model forecast for the study region.
The ship's captain is fully informed through the ship's onboard workstation, which is networked by satellite link to the shore-based support systems, of the relevant observational and environmental forecast information. He instantly accesses electronic maps and charts to plan a changed course. Several hours later comes the news -- yes, the fish have moved. Michele notifies the Northwest Pacific Fishery Council, which in turn issues a recommendation to relocate the commercial fishing activities.